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    October 14

    Left or Right, Smart People Know the Flu Shot is Bull****

    You probably already heard Rush Limbaugh telling Kathleen Sebelius to shove her swine flu shot. Well, here's a similar perspective (but with more detail and more finesse) from the left. Click through the link to read the full article. I don't want to steal these writers' stuff, so I'm only including a sample:
     
    Health November 2009 Atlantic Whether this season’s swine flu turns
    out to be deadly or mild, most experts agree that it’s only a matter
    of time before we’re hit by a truly devastating flu pandemic—one that
    might kill more people worldwide than have died of the plague and aids
    combined. In the U.S., the main lines of defense are
    pharmaceutical—vaccines and antiviral drugs to limit the spread of flu
    and prevent people from dying from it. Yet now some flu experts are
    challenging the medical orthodoxy and arguing that for those most in
    need of protection, flu shots and antiviral drugs may provide little
    to none. So where does that leave us if a bad pandemic strikes?
    by Shannon Brownlee and Jeanne Lenzer
    Does the Vaccine Matter?
    Drive too fast along Red Lion Road, beside Philadelphia’s Northeast
    Airport, and you will miss the low-rise cement building where the
    biotech company MedImmune has been quietly pumping out swine flu
    vaccine at about a million doses a week. Through the summer and fall,
    workers wearing protective gear that covered them from head to toe
    brewed up batches of live, genetically modified flu virus. Robots then
    injected tiny doses of virus-laden fluid into glass vials, which were
    mounted into nasal spritzers, labeled, and readied for shipment at the
    direction of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in
    Atlanta, which is helping to coordinate the nation’s
    pandemic-preparedness plan. In the most ambitious vaccination program
    the nation has mounted since the anti-polio campaign in the 1950s, the
    federal government has commissioned MedImmune and four other companies
    to produce enough vaccine to cover the entire U.S. population.
     
    Vaccination is central to the government’s plan for preventing deaths
    from swine flu. The CDC has recommended that some 159 million adults
    and children receive either a swine flu shot or a dose of MedImmune’s
    nasal vaccine this year. Shots are offered in doctors’ offices,
    hospitals, airports, pharmacies, schools, polling places, shopping
    malls, and big-box stores like Wal-Mart. In August, New York state
    required all health-care workers to get both seasonal and swine flu
    shots. To further protect the populace, the federal government has
    spent upwards of $3billion stockpiling millions of doses of antiviral
    drugs like Tamiflu—which are being used both to prevent swine flu and
    to treat those who fall ill.
    But what if everything we think we know about fighting influenza is
    wrong? What if flu vaccines do not protect people from
    dying—particularly the elderly, who account for 90 percent of deaths
    from seasonal flu? And what if the expensive antiviral drugs that the
    government has stockpiled over the past few years also have little, if
    any, power to reduce the number of people who die or are hospitalized?
    The U.S. government—with the support of leaders in the public-health
    and medical communities—has put its faith in the power of vaccines and
    antiviral drugs to limit the spread and lethality of swine flu. Other
    plans to contain the pandemic seem anemic by comparison. Yet some top
    flu researchers are deeply skeptical of both flu vaccines and
    antivirals. Like the engineers who warned for years about the levees
    of New Orleans, these experts caution that our defenses may be flawed,
    and quite possibly useless against a truly lethal flu. And that unless
    we are willing to ask fundamental questions about the science behind
    flu vaccines and antiviral drugs, we could find ourselves, in a bad
    epidemic, as helpless as the citizens of New Orleans during Hurricane
    Katrina.
     
    ...
     
    We think we have the flu anytime we fall ill with an
    ailment that brings on headache, malaise, fever, coughing, sneezing,
    and that achy feeling as if we’ve been sleeping on a bed of rocks, but
    researchers have found that at most half, and perhaps as few as 7 or 8
    percent, of such cases are actually caused by an influenza virus in
    any given year. More than 200 known viruses and other pathogens can
    cause the suite of symptoms known as “influenza-like illness”;
    respiratory syncytial virus, bocavirus, coronavirus, and rhinovirus
    are just a few of the bugs that can make a person feel rotten. And
    depending on the season, in up to two-thirds of the cases of flu-like
    illness, no cause at all can be found.
     
    ...
     
    But while vaccines for, say, whooping cough and polio clearly and
    dramatically reduced death rates from those diseases, the impact of
    flu vaccine has been harder to determine. Flu comes and goes with the
    seasons, and often it does not kill people directly, but rather
    contributes to death by making the body more susceptible to secondary
    infections like pneumonia or bronchitis. For this reason, researchers
    studying the impact of flu vaccination typically look at deaths from
    all causes during flu season, and compare the vaccinated and
    unvaccinated populations.
    Such comparisons have shown a dramatic difference in mortality between
    these two groups: study after study has found that people who get a
    flu shot in the fall are about half as likely to die that winter—from
    any cause—as people who do not. Get your flu shot each year, the
    literature suggests, and you will dramatically reduce your chance of
    dying during flu season.
    Yet in the view of several vaccine skeptics, this claim is suspicious
    on its face. Influenza causes only a small minority of all deaths in
    the U.S., even among senior citizens, and even after adding in the
    deaths to which flu might have contributed indirectly. When
    researchers from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
    Diseases included all deaths from illnesses that flu aggravates, like
    lung disease or chronic heart failure, they found that flu accounts
    for, at most, 10 percent of winter deaths among the elderly. So how
    could flu vaccine possibly reduce total deaths by half? Tom Jefferson,
    a physician based in Rome and the head of the Vaccines Field at the
    Cochrane Collaboration, a highly respected international network of
    researchers who appraise medical evidence, says: “For a vaccine to
    reduce mortality by 50 percent and up to 90 percent in some studies
    means it has to prevent deaths not just from influenza, but also from
    falls, fires, heart disease, strokes, and car accidents. That’s not a
    vaccine, that’s a miracle.”
     
    ...
     
    The estimate of 50 percent mortality reduction is based on “cohort
    studies,” which compare death rates in large groups, or cohorts, of
    people who choose to be vaccinated, against death rates in groups who
    don’t. But people who choose to be vaccinated may differ in many
    important respects from people who go unvaccinated—and those
    differences can influence the chance of death during flu season.
    Education, lifestyle, income, and many other “confounding” factors can
    come into play, and as a result, cohort studies are notoriously prone
    to bias.
     
    ...
     
    When Lisa Jackson, a physician and senior investigator with the Group
    Health Research Center, in Seattle, began wondering aloud to
    colleagues if maybe something was amiss with the estimate of 50
    percent mortality reduction for people who get flu vaccine, the
    response she got sounded more like doctrine than science. “People told
    me, ‘No good can come of [asking] this,’” she says. “‘Potentially a
    lot of bad could happen’ for me professionally by raising any
    criticism that might dissuade people from getting vaccinated, because
    of course, ‘We know that vaccine works.’ This was the prevailing
    wisdom.”
     
    ...
     
    Jackson’s findings showed that outside of flu season, the baseline
    risk of death among people who did not get vaccinated was
    approximately 60 percent higher than among those who did, lending
    support to the hypothesis that on average, healthy people chose to get
    the vaccine, while the “frail elderly” didn’t or couldn’t. In fact,
    the healthy-user effect explained the entire benefit that other
    researchers were attributing to flu vaccine, suggesting that the
    vaccine itself might not reduce mortality at all...

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